Impact of martial law?
It dampens
expectations of an impending breakdown into chaotic violence but it will
heighten tensions the moment the military is seen to take sides. It has stopped
the People's Democratic Reform Committee from its wandering street protests and
occupations and the impending strike action by supportive state enterprise
unions, but it has also disbanded the Centre for the Administration of Peace
and Order which was starting to look like the care-taker government command
centre. In essence it has bled the rival sides of key resources and strategies
to push competing claims of legitimacy and what was looking like the possible
emergence of two entities claiming government status. So tensions are down, only
because repressed.
Resolution?
A lot depends on whether the Senate proceeds with
discussions on appointing interim PM and government, and if this is supported
by the military. Acting Senate President Surachai has confirmed the Senate
will still seek a way out, despite caretaker PM Niwatthamrong not quitting
yesterday.
Possibility of an appointed government?
If an appointed
government emerges from whatever process, and it incorporates people from the
care-taker cabinet and oppositional elements, this may enable a compromise to
emerge. Such a move would recognise the care-taker government's historic
mandate and also fit some calls for a government of national unity. If an
anti-Thaksin interim government is installed I expect the redshirt movement
will and try and deliver on its promised response of mass resistance.